Since 2014, many firms have utilized in California for testing self-driving vehicles. The listing of firms which have obtained a allow can be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous car know-how. The graph under exhibits how the variety of firms energetic in California has solely elevated progressively from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep improve follows in 2017. The slope softens within the first half of 2018.

In fact it might be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the tip of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving car innovation course of at the moment unfolding the world over.

Energetic California AV permits by month (Knowledge from California DMV) Up to date: 2018-11-18 (you may have to reload your browser to see the most recent model)

However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of firms offering self-driving car options will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the business strikes into the following section, the place the exploratory modes of growth can be changed by extra systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization would be the main focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time could also be working out for individuals who nonetheless wish to bounce onto the self-driving automotive prepare…

Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the tip of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 energetic permits.

Updates:

The graphic is up to date sometimes. You could have to reload your this web page in your browser to view the present model of the graphic.

-2018-11-18: By the tip of October 2018, the variety of energetic permits elevated to 60.

– 2018-09-07: By the tip of August 2018, Mando America Company obtained a allow, growing the variety of energetic permits to 56.

– 2018-08-07: By the tip of July 2018, 2 firms didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) decreasing the variety of energetic permits to 55.